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Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Estrela Prediction

Primeira Liga 11.10.2026 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Arouca emblem
Arouca
D
L
D
W
L
vs
– : –
11 Oct · 15:30
Estrela emblem
Estrela
L
D
W
D
W

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
46%
Arouca
27%
Draw
27%
Estrela

Form Comparison

■ Arouca ■ Estrela
Arouca
Estrela
38%
Form
62%
33%
Att
67%
59%
Def
41%
70%
Poisson distribution
30%
50%
H2h
50%
44%
Goals
56%
49%
Total
51%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
19.04.2026
Arouca vs Estrela
1 — 0
07.12.2025
Estrela vs Arouca
3 — 1
19.04.2025
Arouca vs Estrela
1 — 0
09.12.2024
Estrela vs Arouca
2 — 1
05.05.2024
Arouca vs Estrela
0 — 0
28.12.2023
Estrela vs Arouca
1 — 4

Last Matches

Arouca
Estrela
19.09.2026
Sporting CP vs Arouca
2 — 2
13.09.2026
Arouca vs Santa Clara
1 — 2
07.09.2026
Estoril vs Arouca
0 — 0
29.08.2026
Arouca vs Maritimo
2 — 1
23.08.2026
FC Porto vs Arouca
0 — 2
W: 1 · D: 2 · L: 2

Arouca will host Estrela in an intriguing Primeira Liga clash on October 11, 2026. Both teams are eager to climb the league standings, making this match crucial for their respective campaigns. The encounter promises to be competitive, given their current league positions and recent performances.

Arouca's Form and Home Strength

Currently placed 5th in the Primeira Liga table, Arouca has been a formidable team, particularly at home. With a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches, they have shown resilience against tough opponents. Notably, their recent 2-2 draw against Sporting CP, who are 3rd in the league, demonstrates their ability to compete against top-tier teams. Arouca's home form has been impressive, scoring an average of 2.33 goals per game while conceding only 1.00. Despite facing some setbacks, such as the loss to Santa Clara and FC Porto, Arouca has shown promise, especially with their victory over Maritimo.

Estrela's Consistent Offensive Output

Estrela finds themselves in 8th place, just a point behind Arouca. Their recent form has been characterized by high-scoring games, having scored 2.00 goals per match in their last five outings. Despite a disappointing 0-2 loss to Academico Viseu, Estrela has managed to secure vital points with a 3-3 draw against Rio Ave and a thrilling 3-2 victory over Nacional. Their away form has been particularly strong, remaining unbeaten with 1 win and 3 draws. Estrela's offensive capabilities, highlighted by their 2-1 win against SC Braga, showcase their potential to challenge Arouca.

Balanced Matchup Prediction

In this competitive matchup, the prediction suggests a draw. Both Arouca and Estrela have shown capabilities in their recent performances, balancing each other's strengths. Arouca's solid home record and Estrela's unbeaten away run point towards an evenly matched contest. Additionally, both teams have an equal head-to-head record, further supporting the likelihood of a draw.

Main Pick: Draw (X)

Additional Predictions: - Both Teams to Score: Yes - Total: Over 1.5 - Total Team 1: Over 0.5 - Handicap 2: 0.5

These predictions reflect the balanced nature of the teams, considering their current league form and scoring patterns. Estrela's offensive prowess and Arouca's home advantage make for an exciting encounter where both teams are likely to find the net. The handicap on Estrela also accounts for their potential to challenge strongly in this away fixture.

Prediction and Betting Tips

7/10 Confidence
Both Teams to Score: Yes
65%
Total:Over: 1.5
75%
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5
80%
Handicap 2: 0.5
70%

Bookmakers Odds Online

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SBO

Primeira Liga Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
FC Porto logoFC Porto
8 8 0 0 24
2
Benfica logoBenfica
8 6 1 1 19
3
Sporting CP logoSporting CP
8 5 3 0 18
4
Santa Clara logoSanta Clara
8 5 3 0 18
5
Arouca logoArouca ★
8 4 2 2 14
6
Academico Viseu logoAcademico Viseu
8 4 2 2 14
7
GIL Vicente logoGIL Vicente
7 3 2 2 11
8
Alverca logoAlverca
8 3 2 3 11
9
SC Braga logoSC Braga
7 3 2 2 11
10
Estrela logoEstrela ★
8 2 4 2 10
11
Maritimo logoMaritimo
8 2 2 4 8
12
Moreirense logoMoreirense
8 2 2 4 8
13
Famalicao logoFamalicao
8 1 4 3 7
14
Rio Ave logoRio Ave
8 2 1 5 7
15
Vitória SC logoVitória SC
8 1 2 5 5
16
Nacional logoNacional
8 1 1 6 4
17
Casa Pia logoCasa Pia
8 1 1 6 4
18
Estoril logoEstoril
8 0 2 6 2
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