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Primeira Liga

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction

Primeira Liga 11.05.2026 · 19:15 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques Referee: Luís Godinho, Portugal
Guimaraes emblem
Guimaraes
L
L
L
W
W
vs
– : –
11 May · 19:15
Casa Pia emblem
Casa Pia
D
D
W
L
L
Our Prediction
Total:Over: 2.5
Pre-match analysis
8 / 10
Odds
3.40

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
45%
Guimaraes
45%
Draw
10%
Casa Pia

Form Comparison

■ Guimaraes ■ Casa Pia
Guimaraes
Casa Pia
91%
Form
9%
83%
Att
17%
54%
Def
46%
75%
Poisson distribution
25%
50%
H2h
50%
40%
Goals
60%
66%
Total
35%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
28.12.2025
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
0 — 0
01.03.2025
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
1 — 0
28.09.2024
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
1 — 1
24.02.2024
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
0 — 2
23.09.2023
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
0 — 0
19.02.2023
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
0 — 0
29.08.2022
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
0 — 1
01.08.2021
Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
0 — 1

Last Matches

Guimaraes
Casa Pia
16.05.2026
Nacional vs Guimaraes
0 — 2
11.05.2026
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
0 — 1
04.05.2026
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes
1 — 5
25.04.2026
Guimaraes vs Rio Ave
2 — 0
18.04.2026
GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes
1 — 0
W: 2 · D: 0 · L: 3

As the Primeira Liga season draws to a close, Guimaraes and Casa Pia prepare to battle it out at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. With Guimaraes sitting in seventh place and Casa Pia fighting to escape the lower end of the table in sixteenth, this match is crucial for both sides. While Guimaraes looks to secure a better standing, Casa Pia is desperate for points to ensure safety from relegation threats.

Guimaraes: Consistent Performers at Home

Guimaraes have showcased strong performances at home this season, with their recent form reflecting a promising mix of wins and draws. In their last five matches, they have secured three victories, including an impressive 5-0 win over Tondela. Their home statistics are solid with an average of 2.20 goals scored while conceding only 0.80. This robust home form has been pivotal in maintaining their position in the league's upper half. Notably, they have no injury or suspension concerns, providing them with a full squad to capitalize on Casa Pia’s vulnerabilities.

Casa Pia: Struggling on the Road

Casa Pia, on the other hand, have faced difficulties away from home, which has contributed to their precarious position in the league. With no wins in their last five away games, and only managing a single draw, their scoring woes are evident with an average of just 0.40 goals per match. Defensively, they have struggled too, conceding 2.20 goals on average. Despite these challenges, Casa Pia managed a commendable 1-1 draw against Benfica recently, which could boost their morale. Like Guimaraes, Casa Pia has the advantage of a full squad, but they will need to muster more than just determination to overcome their hosts.

Prediction: A Tactical Encounter with Goals

Analyzing the current form and statistics, Guimaraes holds the upper hand, especially at home. However, Casa Pia's recent draw against Benfica suggests they're capable of surprising stronger teams. Given Guimaraes' attacking prowess at home and Casa Pia's vulnerabilities away, the prediction leans towards a high-scoring affair. The most likely betting event is "Total:Over: 2.5" given Guimaraes' ability to score and Casa Pia's defensive lapses. This match presents a fascinating clash of tactics, with Guimaraes' home strength likely to test Casa Pia's resolve.

In conclusion, both teams have specific motivations to win this encounter, which could result in an open, attacking game. With Guimaraes' recent form and Casa Pia's struggles on the road, the expectation is for goals to be plentiful in this fixture.

Prediction and Betting Tips

8/10 Confidence
Total:Over: 2.5

Guimaraes have a strong home scoring record, and Casa Pia struggle defensively away, suggesting a high-scoring match.

3.40
Odds
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5
75%
All: Both Teams to Score: Yes
60%
1X
80%
Total:Over: 2.0
70%

Bookmakers Odds Online

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Pin-UP
W11.69
X3.75
W24.75
William Hill
W11.70
X3.75
W24.33
Bet365
W11.73
X3.80
W24.50
Marathonbet
W11.69
X3.92
W24.45
Unibet
W11.74
X3.60
W24.50
Betfair
W11.73
X3.90
W24.60
BetVictor
W11.67
X3.60
W24.60
Pinnacle
W11.73
X4.00
W24.66
SBO
W11.69
X3.45
W24.39
1xBet
W11.76
X4.07
W24.62
Betano
W11.75
X3.85
W24.60
888Sport
W11.70
X3.75
W24.33
Dafabet
W11.75
X3.95
W24.70

Primeira Liga Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
FC Porto logoFC Porto
34 28 4 2 88
2
Sporting CP logoSporting CP
34 25 7 2 82
3
Benfica logoBenfica
34 23 11 0 80
4
SC Braga logoSC Braga
34 16 11 7 59
5
Famalicao logoFamalicao
34 15 11 8 56
6
GIL Vicente logoGIL Vicente
34 13 11 10 50
7
Moreirense logoMoreirense
34 12 7 15 43
8
Arouca logoArouca
34 12 6 16 42
9
Guimaraes logoGuimaraes ★
34 12 6 16 42
10
Estoril logoEstoril
34 10 9 15 39
11
Alverca logoAlverca
34 10 9 15 39
12
Rio Ave logoRio Ave
34 8 12 14 36
13
Santa Clara logoSanta Clara
34 9 9 16 36
14
Nacional logoNacional
34 9 7 18 34
15
Estrela logoEstrela
34 6 12 16 30
16
Casa Pia logoCasa Pia ★
34 6 12 16 30
17
Tondela logoTondela
34 6 10 18 28
18
AVS logoAVS
34 3 12 19 21
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