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Eredivisie

Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 19.09.2026 · 14:00 Johan Cruijff Arena Referee: M. Nagtegaal
Ajax emblem
Ajax
W
W
L
W
W
vs
– : –
19 Sep · 14:00
Excelsior emblem
Excelsior
L
D
W
W
L

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
75%
Ajax
15%
Draw
10%
Excelsior

Form Comparison

■ Ajax ■ Excelsior
Ajax
Excelsior
59%
Form
41%
65%
Att
35%
50%
Def
50%
28%
Poisson distribution
72%
50%
H2h
50%
55%
Goals
45%
51%
Total
49%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
01.02.2026
Excelsior vs Ajax
2 — 2
22.11.2025
Ajax vs Excelsior
1 — 2
24.04.2024
Ajax vs Excelsior
2 — 2
19.08.2023
Excelsior vs Ajax
2 — 2
29.01.2023
Excelsior vs Ajax
1 — 4
16.10.2022
Ajax vs Excelsior
7 — 1
13.04.2019
Ajax vs Excelsior
6 — 2
11.11.2018
Excelsior vs Ajax
1 — 7
06.05.2018
Excelsior vs Ajax
1 — 2
14.12.2017
Ajax vs Excelsior
3 — 1

Last Matches

Ajax
Excelsior
15.09.2026
Ajax vs Willem II
5 — 1
12.09.2026
Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
5 — 1
05.09.2026
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
1 — 3
30.08.2026
Telstar vs Ajax
4 — 0
27.08.2026
Ajax vs FC Sion
5 — 3
W: 4 · D: 0 · L: 1

Injuries and Suspensions

Ajax
A. Bouwman, D. Blind, S. Adingra
Excelsior
N. Naujoks

Ajax enters this fixture on the back of a thrilling, albeit inconsistent form, with an average of 3.20 goals scored per match over their last five games. However, they have also conceded an average of 2.00 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailties that could be exploited by Excelsior. The visitors, Excelsior, are in superior league position, sitting 4th compared to Ajax’s 8th, and boast a slightly more stable form. They have scored an average of 2.40 goals per game while conceding 1.00 over the same period, indicating a more balanced approach.

Both teams have demonstrated prowess in away games, with Ajax securing four wins and one draw in their last five away fixtures, scoring and conceding an average of 3.00 and 1.00 goals respectively. Excelsior, similarly unbeaten in their last five away games, have been prolific with an average of 3.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded, underscoring their attacking threat on the road. At home, Ajax has shown strong attacking intent, averaging 3.00 goals per game, but their defense remains a concern with 2.00 goals conceded on average. This opens the door for an intriguing clash, especially given Excelsior’s commendable away form.

The head-to-head history paints a picture of close encounters, with Ajax and Excelsior each securing a win and sharing three draws in their last five meetings. Most notably, their matches have been high-scoring affairs, with the last meeting ending in a 2-2 draw. This trend suggests a potential for another goal-laden encounter. Both teams will need to address their defensive weaknesses, as they have been prone to conceding goals, which could be pivotal in determining the outcome of this match.

Given the current form and statistical trends, a prediction of a high-scoring draw seems plausible. Ajax’s attacking capabilities are undeniable, but their defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with Excelsior’s strong away performances, suggest that both teams could find the back of the net on multiple occasions. The most likely betting event, therefore, is a draw, reflecting the close competition between the sides in recent encounters. This is supported by their head-to-head record, where draws have been a frequent outcome. With both teams evenly matched on current form and historical context, a draw has a solid foundation as a prediction for this fixture.

Complementing this main prediction, additional betting options include Ajax’s ability to score over 1.5 goals, given their impressive home scoring record, and Excelsior managing at least one goal, considering their attacking prowess. The likelihood of both teams scoring is high, aligning with their recent scoring trends. Furthermore, a total goals over 2.5 market is supported by both teams’ propensity for high-scoring games, making these betting avenues attractive for this matchup.

Prediction and Betting Tips

7/10 Confidence
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5
70%
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5
80%
1X
65%
Total:Over: 2.5
75%

Bookmakers Odds Online

Ajax vs Excelsior
William Hill
Bet365
Marathonbet
Betfair
BetVictor
Pinnacle
1xBet
Betano

Eredivisie Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
PSV Eindhoven logoPSV Eindhoven
6 5 1 0 16
2
AZ Alkmaar logoAZ Alkmaar
6 5 1 0 16
3
Feyenoord logoFeyenoord
6 4 2 0 14
4
Ajax logoAjax ★
6 4 1 1 13
5
Twente logoTwente
6 4 1 1 13
6
Groningen logoGroningen
7 3 2 2 11
7
Excelsior logoExcelsior ★
6 3 1 2 10
8
Fortuna Sittard logoFortuna Sittard
6 3 1 2 10
9
GO Ahead Eagles logoGO Ahead Eagles
6 2 3 1 9
10
NEC Nijmegen logoNEC Nijmegen
6 2 1 3 7
11
Heerenveen logoHeerenveen
6 1 3 2 6
12
Sparta Rotterdam logoSparta Rotterdam
6 1 2 3 5
13
Telstar logoTelstar
6 1 2 3 5
14
Utrecht logoUtrecht
6 1 2 3 5
15
Cambuur logoCambuur
6 1 1 4 4
16
PEC Zwolle logoPEC Zwolle
7 1 1 5 4
17
Willem II logoWillem II
6 0 2 4 2
18
ADO Den Haag logoADO Den Haag
6 0 1 5 1
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