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Liga MX

Puebla VS Toluca: Final Score & Prediction

Liga MX 15.09.2026 · 21:00 Estadio Cuauhtémoc Referee: Q. Contreras
Puebla emblem
Puebla
W
L
W
W
L
Full Time
0 – 1
HT 0:0
15 Sep · 21:00
Toluca emblem
Toluca
W
W
W
W
W

Match Stats

Puebla 0:1 Toluca
44%
Ball Possession
56%
14
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
4
7
Blocked Shots
4
6
Shots Inside Box
5
8
Shots Outside Box
6
6
Corners
5
1
Offsides
3
7
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
333
Total Passes
446
261
Accurate Passes
382

Match Action

Goals, cards and substitutions
45'
Franco RomeroSubstitution · Víctor Guzmán
Ignacio MaestroYellow Card
57'
59'
Everardo LopezSubstitution · Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
59'
Jesús AnguloSubstitution · Jorge Diaz
69'
José PachucaOwn Goal
Carlos BaltazarSubstitution · Heriberto Jurado
72'
Brayan GarnicaSubstitution · Omar Moreno
75'
77'
Federico ViñasSubstitution · Luan Garcia
90'
Bruno MéndezYellow Card
Fernando MonarrezSubstitution · Oscar Villa
90+4'
José PachucaSubstitution · Iker Moreno
90+4'
Alejandro OrganistaSubstitution · Alberto Herrera
90+4'
90+6'
João Paulo Dias FernandesSubstitution · Oswaldo Virgen

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
18%
Puebla
23%
Draw
59%
Toluca

Form Comparison

■ Puebla ■ Toluca
Puebla
Toluca
43%
Form
57%
36%
Att
64%
36%
Def
64%
23%
Poisson distribution
77%
15%
H2h
85%
14%
Goals
86%
28%
Total
72%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
30.01.2026
Puebla vs Toluca
0 — 0
13.09.2025
Toluca vs Puebla
3 — 1
14.03.2025
Puebla vs Toluca
0 — 3
22.10.2024
Toluca vs Puebla
5 — 0
26.01.2024
Puebla vs Toluca
1 — 1
31.10.2023
Toluca vs Puebla
0 — 1
23.06.2023
Toluca vs Puebla
1 — 1
07.04.2023
Puebla vs Toluca
1 — 2
02.08.2022
Toluca vs Puebla
1 — 1
03.04.2022
Toluca vs Puebla
2 — 1

Last Matches

Puebla
Toluca
11.09.2026
Necaxa vs Puebla
1 — 0
29.08.2026
Club America vs Puebla
0 — 2
22.08.2026
Puebla vs Santos Laguna
3 — 2
17.08.2026
CF Pachuca vs Puebla
3 — 2
12.08.2026
San Diego vs Puebla
2 — 3
W: 3 · D: 0 · L: 2

Puebla enters this match after a thrilling 3-2 victory over Santos Laguna, showcasing their attacking prowess with an average of 2.00 goals per game in their last five matches. However, their defense remains porous, conceding an average of 3.00 goals per game. In contrast, Toluca boasts a more balanced approach, with a solid defense that has allowed just 0.60 goals per game recently, while managing to score 1.40 goals on average. Both teams have distinct strengths and weaknesses that could dictate the tempo of the upcoming encounter.

Puebla sit in fifth place, largely thanks to their home form, where they have secured two wins and one draw in their last five home matches. They score an average of 2.33 goals at home, conceding 1.33, indicating a more stable defensive performance at their own ground. Conversely, Toluca's away form presents a challenge for Puebla. With two wins and two draws in their last five away matches, Toluca's defense remains robust, conceding only 1.00 goals per game away from home. Notably, Toluca's recent 2-0 victory over Austin underscores their capability to maintain clean sheets even on the road.

In head-to-head encounters, Toluca has dominated with three wins in the last five meetings, including a 3-1 victory over Puebla. Puebla has failed to secure a win against Toluca in these encounters, with two draws being their best results. This historical advantage could play a psychological role in the upcoming match, potentially influencing both teams' strategies.

The prediction for this match leans towards a Toluca win, given their superior defensive record and historical edge over Puebla. While Puebla has shown an ability to score, their defensive frailties, particularly against a structured team like Toluca, could be their downfall. Toluca's disciplined defense and effective counter-attacking strategy make them likely to capitalize on Puebla's defensive lapses. The most probable betting event is a "Win 2" for Toluca, with a confidence score of 8. This outcome is supported by Toluca's consistent away form and their head-to-head superiority.

Additionally, there are other potential events to consider. The probability of "Total:Over: 2.5" is high, given Puebla's average goals scored and conceded. Similarly, "Total Team 2 Over: 1" is likely, as Toluca has scored more than one goal in multiple recent matches. Given both teams' scoring trends, "Both Teams to Score" is a probable outcome. Lastly, "X2" is also a logical prediction, considering Toluca's strong away form and Puebla's defensive struggles.

Prediction and Betting Tips

8/10 Confidence
Total:Over: 2.5
75%
Total Team 2 Over: 1
70%
1X
60%
X2
65%

Bookmakers Odds Online

Puebla vs Toluca
William Hill
Bet365
Marathonbet
Betfair
BetVictor
Pinnacle
SBO
1xBet
Betano

Liga MX Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
Toluca logoToluca ★
8 6 1 1 19
2
Guadalajara Chivas logoGuadalajara Chivas
9 5 3 1 18
3
Club America logoClub America
8 5 2 1 17
4
Cruz Azul logoCruz Azul
9 5 0 4 15
5
Puebla logoPuebla ★
9 4 2 3 14
6
Atlas logoAtlas
9 4 2 3 14
7
Monterrey logoMonterrey
8 4 1 3 13
8
Club Queretaro logoClub Queretaro
7 4 1 2 13
9
Club Leon
8 4 1 3 13
10
Club Tijuana logoClub Tijuana
7 4 1 2 13
11
U.N.A.M. - Pumas logoU.N.A.M. - Pumas
9 3 3 3 12
12
CF Pachuca logoCF Pachuca
8 3 2 3 11
13
Atletico San Luis logoAtletico San Luis
9 2 3 4 9
14
Atlante FC logoAtlante FC
9 1 5 3 8
15
Necaxa logoNecaxa
9 2 2 5 8
16
Tigres UANL logoTigres UANL
9 1 4 4 7
17
Santos Laguna logoSantos Laguna
8 1 1 6 4
18
FC Juarez logoFC Juarez
9 1 0 8 3
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