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UEFA Nations League

Iceland vs Estonia Prediction

UEFA Nations League 26.09.2026 · 12:00 Referee: Miguel Nogueira
Iceland emblem
Iceland
L
L
D
D
L
vs
– : –
26 Sep · 12:00
Estonia emblem
Estonia
L
D

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
64%
Iceland
23%
Draw
13%
Estonia

Form Comparison

■ Iceland ■ Estonia
Iceland
Estonia
0%
Form
0%
0%
Att
0%
0%
Def
0%
0%
Poisson distribution
0%
50%
H2h
50%
50%
Goals
50%
50%
Total
50%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
08.01.2023
Iceland vs Estonia
1 — 1

Last Matches

Iceland
Estonia
09.06.2026
Argentina vs Iceland
0 — 3
31.05.2026
Japan vs Iceland
0 — 1
31.03.2026
Haiti vs Iceland
1 — 1
28.03.2026
Canada vs Iceland
2 — 2
25.02.2026
Mexico vs Iceland
0 — 4
W: 0 · D: 2 · L: 3

Iceland's recent performance raises concerns, having conceded an average of 2.20 goals per match in their last five outings. This defensive frailty will be a focal point as they face Estonia, who have also struggled in recent times, averaging 0.50 goals scored per match. Both teams are positioned at the bottom of their league standings, reflecting their ongoing struggles in international competitions.

Form and Context

Iceland comes into this match after a challenging series of results, losing three of their last five matches and drawing twice. Their inability to secure a win is mirrored in their goal-scoring record, managing just 0.60 goals per match. Estonia's form is not much better, having drawn against Kenya and lost to Rwanda in their previous matches. However, Estonia has shown slightly more resilience in away games, with a win against Rwanda and a close contest in their loss. Both teams have shown deficiencies in defense, but Iceland's vulnerability is more pronounced with no wins in their last five competitive fixtures.

Key Numbers

The head-to-head record between these two teams is limited, with their last encounter ending in a 1-1 draw. Iceland has been particularly weak at home, failing to score or win in any of their home games, while Estonia's away form includes a win and a loss with an average of 1.50 goals conceded per game. Both teams have a negligible difference in their offensive output, scoring an average of 0.60 for Iceland and 0.50 for Estonia in their last five matches. This suggests a closely contested match could be on the cards, with defenses likely to be tested on both sides.

Prediction

In this context, the prediction leans towards a low-scoring draw, given both teams' struggles in front of goal and their defensive records. The main betting event to consider is the "X" or draw outcome, given the evenly matched statistics and the previous 1-1 result when these teams last met. A draw seems plausible, with neither team showing the firepower needed to secure a decisive victory. The prediction for a draw carries a confidence score of 7, based on their similar recent form and statistical profiles.

Additional predictions include: 1. "Total:Under: 2.5" with a probability of 70%, as both teams have averaged less than one goal per game in recent outings. 2. "Total Team 1 Under: 1.5" with a probability of 65%, considering Iceland's average goals scored. 3. "Total Team 2 Under: 1.5" with a probability of 75%, reflecting Estonia's low scoring record. 4. "1X" with a probability of 60%, as Iceland might leverage their home advantage to avoid defeat, despite their poor form.

Prediction and Betting Tips

7/10 Confidence
Total:Under: 2.5
70%
Total Team 1 Under: 1.5
65%
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5
75%
1X
60%

Bookmakers Odds Online

Iceland vs Estonia
William Hill
Marathonbet
Betfair
BetVictor
Pinnacle
1xBet
Betano
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