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Primeira Liga

Nacional VS Alverca: Final Score & Prediction

Primeira Liga 12.09.2026 · 10:30 Referee: M. Nogueira
Nacional emblem
Nacional
L
L
L
W
D
Full Time
1 – 3
HT 0:3
12 Sep · 10:30
Alverca emblem
Alverca
L
D
L
D
L

Match Stats

Nacional 1:3 Alverca
57%
Ball Possession
43%
13
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
7
9
Shots off Target
3
1
Blocked Shots
0
10
Shots Inside Box
5
3
Shots Outside Box
5
2
Corners
0
0
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
474
Total Passes
360
392
Accurate Passes
291

Match Action

Goals, cards and substitutions
18'
Yaya BojangYellow Card
34'
Francisco ChissumbaGoal · Francisco Chiquinho ⚽
36'
Dawda Camara SankharéGoal · Diogo Spencer ⚽
42'
Dawda Camara SankharéGoal · Diogo Spencer ⚽
⇆ Daniel de Melo Araujo JuniorSubstitution · Matchoi Djaló
45'
⇆ Markus JensenSubstitution · Song Min-kyu
45'
48'
Dawda Camara SankharéYellow Card
⇆ Matheus dos Santos DiasSubstitution · Chiheb Labidi
54'
65'
Francisco ChiquinhoSubstitution · Matheus Franca ⇆
66'
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosSubstitution · André Vidigal ⇆
⇆ Stavros GavrielSubstitution · Allen Obando
69'
72'
Dawda Camara SankharéSubstitution · Vivaldo Semedo ⇆
73'
Diogo SpencerYellow Card
⇆ Pablo RuanSubstitution · Fernando Nava Ortega
78'
79'
Davy GuiSubstitution · Rayan Lucas ⇆
79'
Isaac JamesSubstitution · Cedric Nuozzi ⇆
⚽ Matchoi DjalóGoal
81'

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
35%
Nacional
30%
Draw
35%
Alverca

Form Comparison

■ Nacional ■ Alverca
Nacional
Alverca
67%
Form
33%
55%
Att
45%
56%
Def
44%
87%
Poisson distribution
13%
50%
H2h
50%
50%
Goals
50%
61%
Total
39%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
18.04.2026
Nacional vs Alverca
1 — 0
07.12.2025
Alverca vs Nacional
1 — 0

Last Matches

Nacional
Alverca
05.09.2026
Sporting CP vs Nacional
0 — 2
30.08.2026
Nacional vs Estrela
2 — 3
23.08.2026
Vitória SC vs Nacional
0 — 1
16.08.2026
Nacional vs Estoril
2 — 0
10.08.2026
Santa Clara vs Nacional
2 — 2
W: 1 · D: 1 · L: 3

Nacional have scored an average of 1.60 goals per match at home, yet they remain vulnerable defensively, conceding the same amount. This balance of offensive capability and defensive frailty typifies their recent performances. Their home form has been inconsistent with just one win in their last five matches. Alverca, on the other hand, have managed an average of 1.20 goals at home while maintaining a tighter defense by conceding only 0.60 goals on average. However, their away form is shaky, with one win and three losses, highlighting their struggles on the road.

Both teams have experienced mixed results in recent outings. Nacional's recent form includes a single win, two draws, and two losses. They have shown potential in attack but have been let down by their defense, averaging 1.60 goals conceded per match. Alverca's recent form is similarly inconsistent, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their defensive record mirrors Nacional's with an average of 1.60 goals conceded per match, but they have been slightly less prolific in front of goal, scoring one goal on average per match.

When comparing the two, Alverca's away form could be their Achilles' heel, while Nacional's inconsistent home performances suggest vulnerabilities. The head-to-head data shows a balanced history, with each team securing a narrow 1-0 win over the other in recent encounters.

Nacional's ability to score goals at home, averaging 1.60 per match, is countered by their equally high concession rate. Their most recent victory at home was a 2-0 triumph over Estoril, demonstrating their potential to secure points when the attack clicks. Alverca, despite their struggles on the road, have shown resilience in high-pressure matches, notably in a 1-0 home victory against Sporting CP B, a result that highlights their tenacity.

The head-to-head record is evenly poised with both teams having secured a win each in their last two meetings. This parity suggests a closely fought contest is on the cards, with both sides eager to tip the balance in their favor.

Given the recent performances and the statistical data available, the prediction leans towards a balanced game with a slight edge for the home side. The most probable betting event is a Draw (X). Both teams have displayed defensive weaknesses that could be exploited, yet their head-to-head history and respective recent forms indicate that neither side holds a decisive advantage. With Nacional's home scoring record and Alverca's resilience, a draw appears the most likely outcome, reflecting the equilibrium observed in their past encounters.

For additional predictions, the market suggests several viable options. A "Total: Over: 1.5" is plausible, given both teams' average goals scored and conceded in recent matches. Similarly, a "Total Team 1 Over: 0.5" bet seems likely, considering Nacional's scoring rate at home. For Alverca, "Total Team 2 Over: 0.5" aligns with their average goals scored per match. Finally, a "Handicap 1: 0.5" could capture Nacional's slight home advantage, offering a buffer against a narrow defeat.

Prediction and Betting Tips

7/10 Confidence
Total:Over: 1.5
70%
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5
80%
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5
60%
Handicap 1: 0.5
65%

Bookmakers Odds Online

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SBO

Primeira Liga Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
FC Porto logoFC Porto
8 8 0 0 24
2
Benfica logoBenfica
8 6 1 1 19
3
Sporting CP logoSporting CP
8 5 3 0 18
4
Santa Clara logoSanta Clara
8 5 3 0 18
5
Arouca logoArouca
8 4 2 2 14
6
Academico Viseu logoAcademico Viseu
8 4 2 2 14
7
GIL Vicente logoGIL Vicente
7 3 2 2 11
8
Alverca logoAlverca ★
8 3 2 3 11
9
SC Braga logoSC Braga
7 3 2 2 11
10
Estrela logoEstrela
8 2 4 2 10
11
Maritimo logoMaritimo
8 2 2 4 8
12
Moreirense logoMoreirense
8 2 2 4 8
13
Famalicao logoFamalicao
8 1 4 3 7
14
Rio Ave logoRio Ave
8 2 1 5 7
15
Vitória SC logoVitória SC
8 1 2 5 5
16
Nacional logoNacional ★
8 1 1 6 4
17
Casa Pia logoCasa Pia
8 1 1 6 4
18
Estoril logoEstoril
8 0 2 6 2
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