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Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction

Primeira Liga 16.05.2026 · 17:00 Estádio da Madeira Referee: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
Nacional emblem
Nacional
L
L
W
W
L
vs
– : –
16 May · 17:00
Guimaraes emblem
Guimaraes
L
L
W
W
D
Our Prediction
All: Both Teams to Score: Yes
Pre-match analysis
7 / 10
Odds
3.08

Win Probability

Pre-Match Analysis
10%
Nacional
45%
Draw
45%
Guimaraes

Form Comparison

■ Nacional ■ Guimaraes
Nacional
Guimaraes
46%
Form
54%
44%
Att
56%
54%
Def
46%
63%
Poisson distribution
37%
29%
H2h
71%
40%
Goals
60%
46%
Total
54%

Head-to-Head

Overall
Home
Away
02.01.2026
Guimaraes vs Nacional
2 — 1
03.05.2025
Nacional vs Guimaraes
1 — 2
23.12.2024
Guimaraes vs Nacional
2 — 2
26.04.2021
Nacional vs Guimaraes
1 — 0
21.01.2021
Guimaraes vs Nacional
3 — 1
05.05.2019
Guimaraes vs Nacional
2 — 2
02.01.2019
Nacional vs Guimaraes
1 — 0
31.03.2017
Nacional vs Guimaraes
1 — 2
04.11.2016
Guimaraes vs Nacional
2 — 1
20.03.2016
Nacional vs Guimaraes
3 — 2

Last Matches

Nacional
Guimaraes
11.05.2026
Santa Clara vs Nacional
0 — 2
02.05.2026
Nacional vs AVS
1 — 2
25.04.2026
Tondela vs Nacional
2 — 0
18.04.2026
Nacional vs Alverca
1 — 0
12.04.2026
Benfica vs Nacional
0 — 2
W: 2 · D: 0 · L: 3

As the Primeira Liga season draws to a close, Nacional and Guimaraes prepare to face off at the Estádio da Madeira. With both teams having distinct motivations, the match promises an intriguing contest filled with passion and tactical battles. Nacional, fighting to consolidate their league position, clash against a Guimaraes side that is eyeing a strong finish in the upper half of the table.

Nacional's Recent Home Fortunes

Nacional sits in 14th place, having shown glimpses of resilience, especially at home. Their recent form includes a hard-fought 2-0 victory against Estrela and a narrow 1-0 win over Alverca. Despite these wins, they have faced challenges, as seen in their losses to AVS and Benfica. Overall, Nacional has managed to score an average of 1.00 goals per game at home, while conceding the same number. With no injuries or suspensions affecting their squad, they will look to leverage their full strength to fend off Guimaraes.

Guimaraes' Quest for Consistency

Guimaraes enters this fixture in 8th place, with a mixed bag of recent performances. Their attacking prowess was on full display in a commanding 5-0 victory over Tondela, but they stumbled in a 5-1 defeat to Sporting CP. Away from home, Guimaraes has struggled, scoring an average of 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20. Despite these away-day woes, their overall average of 2.00 goals per match in recent games showcases their potential for scoring. Like Nacional, Guimaraes reports no injuries or suspensions, allowing them to field a strong lineup.

Prediction: Goals in Sight

Given the context of both teams' recent performances and their attacking capabilities, the prediction leans towards a match with goals. Guimaraes' tendency to score, coupled with Nacional's solid home performances, suggests that both teams will find the back of the net. Historically, their head-to-head encounters have featured goals from both sides, with the last five matches yielding a total of 16 goals. Therefore, the most likely betting event is "All: Both Teams to Score: Yes," with a confidence score of 7. The rationale for this prediction is rooted in the attacking form both sides have demonstrated and their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly away for Guimaraes and at home for Nacional.

In addition to the main prediction, the following betting events are worth considering: "Total:Over: 2.5" has a 60% probability due to the goal-rich history between these teams; "X2" with a 55% probability as Guimaraes has been the more dominant side in head-to-heads; "Total Team 1 Over: 0.5" at 70% probability, highlighting Nacional's ability to score at home; and "Total Team 2 Over: 0.5" at 65% probability, reflecting Guimaraes' consistent scoring record.

Prediction and Betting Tips

7/10 Confidence
All: Both Teams to Score: Yes

Both teams have shown consistent scoring form, and their head-to-head history suggests goals from both sides.

3.08
Odds
Total:Over: 2.5
60%
X2
55%
Total Team 1 Over: 0.5
70%
Total Team 2 Over: 0.5
65%

Bookmakers Odds Online

Nacional vs Guimaraes
Pin-UP
W11.90
X3.55
W23.80
William Hill
W11.85
X3.80
W23.50
Bet365
W11.90
X3.50
W23.90
Marathonbet
W11.89
X3.54
W23.84
Unibet
W11.92
X3.50
W23.75
Betfair
W11.91
X3.75
W23.75
Pinnacle
W11.93
X3.56
W23.87
1xBet
W11.96
X3.68
W23.99
Betano
W11.82
X3.65
W24.40
Dafabet
W11.95
X3.65
W23.95

Primeira Liga Tournament Standings

#TeamMPWDLPts
1
FC Porto logoFC Porto
33 27 4 2 85
2
Sporting CP logoSporting CP
33 24 7 2 79
3
Benfica logoBenfica
33 22 11 0 77
4
SC Braga logoSC Braga
33 16 10 7 58
5
Famalicao logoFamalicao
33 14 11 8 53
6
GIL Vicente logoGIL Vicente
33 13 11 9 50
7
Moreirense logoMoreirense
33 12 6 15 42
8
Guimaraes logoGuimaraes ★
33 12 6 15 42
9
Estoril logoEstoril
33 10 9 14 39
10
Arouca logoArouca
33 11 6 16 39
11
Alverca logoAlverca
33 10 9 14 39
12
Santa Clara logoSanta Clara
33 9 9 15 36
13
Rio Ave logoRio Ave
33 8 11 14 35
14
Nacional logoNacional ★
33 8 7 18 31
15
Estrela logoEstrela
33 6 11 16 29
16
Casa Pia logoCasa Pia
33 6 11 16 29
17
Tondela logoTondela
33 6 10 17 28
18
AVS logoAVS
33 3 11 19 20
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